4238 Fennec Fox Way

Kathleen, FL 33810

$319,900F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,521/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$533
• HOA: −$64
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-283/mo
• Annual: $-3,400/yr
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.80%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $89,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-283 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (21.2% below list).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $252k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#752 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Socrum Elementary School (math 44% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 546 students, 65% FRL); Kathleen Middle School (math 28% / reading 28%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 821 students, 68% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 511 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.