643 Bottles St

Badger, AK 99705

$189,000B-

8 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,120 sqft · Built 1986 · MultiFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,405/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$371
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,135
• Net cashflow: $2,908/mo
• Annual: $34,899/yr
• Cap rate: 25.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.21%
• DSCR: 3.99
• 1% rule: 2.86%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 4-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $189k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($35k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $189k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#49 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Pole Elementary (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #93 of 156 statewide, top 66%, 347 students, 37% FRL); North Pole Middle School (math 25% / reading 45%, grade F, #21 of 36 statewide, top 57%, 531 students, 39% FRL); North Pole High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #33 of 61 statewide, top 57%, 617 students, 29% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 25.1% vs local median 4.9% in Badger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,405/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($97k/yr) (locally 237% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Significant damage to the roof is visible.
• Major: exterior siding — Siding is peeling and damaged.
• Major: flooring — Worn and in need of replacement.
• Major: interior walls/paint — Paint is peeling and walls show signs of wear.
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — Outdated and may need replacement.
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt, reducing curb appeal.