3193A Neils Ct

Moorestown-Lenola, NJ 08054

$86,417B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 778 sqft · Built 1988 · Townhouse · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,013/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$453
• Tax + insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$365
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $628/mo
• Annual: $7,536/yr
• Cap rate: 15.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.14%
• DSCR: 2.39
• 1% rule: 2.33%
• Cash to close: $24,197

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $86k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $628 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $86k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $598 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mount Laurel Township School District (suburban): math 37% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #161 of 472 in NJ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 246 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $59k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 3.0% in Moorestown-Lenola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: Exterior siding — Weathered appearance
• Moderate: Kitchen cabinets — Dated appearance
• Moderate: Bathroom fixtures — Worn appearance
• Moderate: Hardwood flooring — Signs of wear