10325 Providence Dr #104

Johnston, IA 50131

$189,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,083 sqft · Built 2007 · Condo · Active · 205 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,356/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$244
• HOA: −$205
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $-369/mo
• Annual: $-4,428/yr
• Cap rate: 3.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.37%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-369 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (34.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (28.3% below list).
• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#59 in IA, #1,344 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Johnston Community School District (suburban): math 78% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #24 of 289 in IA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Horizon Elementary (math 71% / reading 67%, grade A-, #263 of 616 statewide, top 43%, 647 students, 36% FRL); Summit Middle School (math 80% / reading 77%, grade A+, #44 of 246 statewide, top 19%, 1,112 students, 27% FRL); Johnston Senior High School (math 76% / reading 79%, grade A-, #56 of 336 statewide, top 17%, 1,790 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,953 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (540 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.4% in Johnston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?