4 Pine St

Fredericksburg, PA 17026

$105,000B-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2004 · Manufactured · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,538/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $534/mo
• Annual: $6,404/yr
• Cap rate: 12.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.78%
• DSCR: 1.97
• 1% rule: 1.47%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $534 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#790 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Northern Lebanon SD (rural): math 30% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #347 of 539 in PA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 315 units permitted in Lebanon County in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lebanon County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $105k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.