35778 Wells Rd

Coarsegold, CA 93614

$153,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,406/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax + insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $912/mo
• Annual: $10,943/yr
• Cap rate: 13.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.54%
• DSCR: 2.14
• 1% rule: 1.57%
• Cash to close: $42,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $153k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $912 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#474 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Yosemite Unified (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #321 of 517 in CA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.8% in Coarsegold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.