1210 Monroe St

Commerce, TX 75428

$170,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,185 sqft · Built 1905 · SingleFamily · Active · 275 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,728/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$603
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-129/mo
• Annual: $-1,546/yr
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.25%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (13.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $147k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#737 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Commerce ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #687 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 210 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 10 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.1% in Commerce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?