1509 W Ray Ave

Artesia, NM 88210

$187,000B-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,061 sqft · Built 1960 · Other · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,966/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$981
• Tax + insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $1,051/mo
• Annual: $12,611/yr
• Cap rate: 13.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.09%
• DSCR: 2.07
• 1% rule: 1.59%
• Cash to close: $52,360

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $187k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $187k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#75 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Artesia Public Schools (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #17 of 95 in NM (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Yeso Elementary (493 students, 40% FRL); Artesia Zia Intermediate (546 students, 50% FRL); Artesia High (math 44% / reading 74%, grade C+, #27 of 110 statewide, top 28%, 766 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Artesia Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.