2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,080 sqft ·
Built 1991
· Condo
· Active
· 75 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,110/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,049
Tax + insurance
−$333
HOA
−$367
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$443
Net cashflow
$-82/mo
Annual
$-985/yr
Cap rate
5.80%
Cash-on-cash
-1.76%
DSCR
0.92
1% rule
1.06%
Cash to close
$56,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $200k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-985/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (5.9% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#35 in MD, #1,269 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, cost of living F.
Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Forest Lakes Elementary (math 29% / reading 32%, grade F, #196 of 860 statewide, top 23%, 428 students, 16% FRL); Bel Air Middle (math 16% / reading 52%, grade F, #51 of 225 statewide, top 23%, 1,138 students, 23% FRL); Bel Air High (math 73% / reading 71%, grade B+, #34 of 222 statewide, top 15%, 1,489 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 20% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Harford County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).
6 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $130k; list at $200k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Bel Air North — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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