902 S Audubon Place Ave

Gonzales, LA 70737

$254,900D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,658 sqft · Built 2022 · Townhouse · Pending · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,037/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$306
• HOA: −$10
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-43/mo
• Annual: $-521/yr
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.73%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $71,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $255k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-521/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (20.1% below list).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $204k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#135 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pecan Grove Primary School (math 35% / reading 51%, grade F, #197 of 646 statewide, top 31%, 643 students, 71% FRL); Gonzales Middle School (math 18% / reading 33%, grade F, #139 of 218 statewide, top 64%, 781 students, 69% FRL); East Ascension High School (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #43 of 265 statewide, top 16%, 2,098 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 44% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 53% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Ascension Parish average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 571 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 14 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $188k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.5% in Gonzales — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?