106 Jules Ln

Ashford, AL 36312

$220,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,423/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $-172/mo
• Annual: $-2,068/yr
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.36%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-172 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (35.3% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $142k (35.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (7.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#29 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Houston County (rural): math 25% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #38 of 129 in AL (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ashford Elementary School (math 21% / reading 51%, grade F, #286 of 627 statewide, top 46%, 625 students, 68% FRL); Ashford Middle School (293 students, 67% FRL); Ashford High School (math 9% / reading 32%, grade F, #159 of 305 statewide, top 53%, 399 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 463 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Houston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $160k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.1% in Ashford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.