183 Pine Bridge Rd

Harlan, KY 40829

$114,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2014 · Manufactured · Active · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,026/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $38/mo
• Annual: $457/yr
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.90%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $32,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($457/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (10.7% below list).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($794 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#426 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Harlan County (rural): math 16% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #149 of 165 in KY (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP.
• Harlan County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.