172 Maple Rd. AKA 163 Maple

Franklin, NJ 07416-1323

$314,900D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,664 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax + insurance: −$391
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-68/mo
• Annual: $-812/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.92%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $88,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-812/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (20.6% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $250k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#410 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Wallkill Valley Regional High School (rural): math 27% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #462 of 612 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Franklin Borough School (math 14% / reading 37%, grade F, #851 of 1,303 statewide, top 66%, 474 students, 38% FRL); Wallkill Valley Regional High School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #169 of 399 statewide, top 44%, 615 students, 14% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 184 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sussex County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $315k implies a 451% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $88k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.