410 Saint Jude Cir

Florence, KY 41042

$225,000D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,307 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,799/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $26/mo
• Annual: $316/yr
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.50%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($316/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (20.0% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $180k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#82 in KY, #2,763 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hillard Collins Elementary School (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #515 of 676 statewide, top 77%, 483 students, 65% FRL); Rector A. Jones Middle School (math 11% / reading 29%, grade F, #206 of 217 statewide, top 95%, 679 students, 74% FRL); Boone County High School (math 21% / reading 32%, grade F, #174 of 254 statewide, top 69%, 1,279 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 30% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Boone County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $225k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.4% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.