3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,952 sqft ·
Built 1987
· Other
· Active
· 60 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,718/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,416
Tax + insurance
−$270
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$361
Net cashflow
$-329/mo
Annual
$-3,946/yr
Cap rate
4.83%
Cash-on-cash
-5.22%
DSCR
0.77
1% rule
0.64%
Cash to close
$75,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $270k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-329 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (21.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (36.4% below list).
It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $172k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#171 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Marshall County (rural): math 29% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #73 of 165 in KY (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Central Elementary School (math 45% / reading 40%, grade F, #169 of 676 statewide, top 26%, 487 students, 48% FRL); North Marshall Middle School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #73 of 217 statewide, top 36%, 497 students, 45% FRL); Marshall County High School (math 26% / reading 30%, grade F, #151 of 254 statewide, top 61%, 1,256 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
Marshall County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $177k; list at $270k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 2 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29