417 Captain Smith Ln

Buena, NJ 08310

$80,000C+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 319 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,163/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $366/mo
• Annual: $4,389/yr
• Cap rate: 11.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.60%
• DSCR: 1.87
• 1% rule: 1.45%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 319 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#501 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Buena Regional School District (rural): math 11% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #425 of 472 in NJ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.7% in Buena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 319 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Major: bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
• Major: interior walls/paint — dated wallpaper and peeling paint