356 Honey Hill Rd

Cherry Valley, NY 13320

$159,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,260/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$294
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-133/mo
• Annual: $-1,595/yr
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.58%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (20.8% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $126k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#990 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, employment D.
• Cherry Valley-Springfield Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #564 of 755 in NY (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Otsego County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Otsego County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $159k implies a 215% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.