2987 Teamon Rd

Heron Bay, GA 30223

$199,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,395 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,436/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-53/mo
• Annual: $-641/yr
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.14%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-641/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (28.2% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $144k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#159 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Griffin-Spalding County (suburban): math 13% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #151 of 174 in GA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jordan Hill Road Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #878 of 1,228 statewide, top 75%, 356 students, 98% FRL); Kennedy Road Middle School (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #392 of 470 statewide, top 84%, 477 students, 98% FRL); Spalding High School (math 11% / reading 25%, grade F, #258 of 424 statewide, top 62%, 1,252 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 68% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 440 active listings in the ZIP; 342 units permitted in Spalding County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Spalding County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $200k implies a 448% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 34% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Heron Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.