330 W hwy 246 #12

Buellton, CA 93427

$399,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,430 sqft · Built 2026 · Manufactured · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,854/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$665
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$809
• Net cashflow: $288/mo
• Annual: $3,452/yr
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.09%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $288 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $385k (3.4% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $385k (3.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#438 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Santa Ynez Valley Union High (town): math 37% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #386 of 1,400 in CA (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.0% in Buellton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.