607 22ND St

Union City, NJ 07087

$539,900D+

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,078 sqft · Built 1903 · SingleFamily · Active · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,584/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,831
• Tax + insurance: −$718
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$753
• Net cashflow: $-718/mo
• Annual: $-8,619/yr
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.70%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $151,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $540k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-718 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $413k (23.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $358k (33.6% below list).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($524k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $358k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $58k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#117 in NJ, #2,998 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living F.
• Union City School District (suburban): math 15% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #399 of 472 in NJ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Robert Waters Elementary School (math 10% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,042 of 1,303 statewide, top 80%, 976 students, 88% FRL); Union Hill Middle School (math 18% / reading 40%, grade F, #321 of 431 statewide, top 77%, 849 students, 91% FRL); Union City High School (math 12% / reading 35%, grade F, #331 of 399 statewide, top 83%, 3,025 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools at 87% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1903 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 229 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $216k; list at $540k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$93k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.3% in Union City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1903 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.