27 bd · None ba ·
4,100 sqft ·
Built 1980
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 33 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$6,819/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,540
Tax + insurance
−$1,585
HOA
−$467
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,432
Net cashflow
$-205/mo
Annual
$-2,462/yr
Cap rate
6.05%
Cash-on-cash
-0.88%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
1.01%
Cash to close
$189,000
Investor read
This is a 2×2bd/2ba + 2×3bd/2ba units multifamily listed at $675k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-51/mo.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $639k (5.4% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $675k).
It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($655k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $639k (5.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Maurice L Wolfe El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 405 students, 64% FRL); Memorial Parkway J H (math 61% / reading 59%, grade B, #158 of 1,662 statewide, top 10%, 787 students, 45% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 27% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 243 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $6,819/mo this rent would consume 80% of the median local household income ($102k/yr) (locally 1811% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
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