Pearson - Interior Unit Plan

Edgewater, FL 32168

$286,990C-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,463 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 289 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,964/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,505
• Tax + insurance: −$905
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $-68/mo
• Annual: $-817/yr
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.35%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $80,357

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $287k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-817/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (3.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $287k).
• It's been on market 289 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $253k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#329 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Read-Pattillo Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 363 students, 54% FRL); New Smyrna Beach Middle School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 1,037 students, 53% FRL); New Smyrna Beach High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 1,810 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 607 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,964/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 1139% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 289 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.