4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,499 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Land
· Active
· 70 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,784/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,015
Tax + insurance
−$395
HOA
−$38
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$585
Net cashflow
$-1,249/mo
Annual
$-14,982/yr
Cap rate
3.69%
Cash-on-cash
-9.31%
DSCR
0.59
1% rule
0.48%
Cash to close
$160,972
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $575k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $354k (38.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (51.6% below list).
It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($540k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $278k (51.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#440 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime B+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
Lewisville ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #109 of 826 in TX (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Highland Village El (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 358 students, 17% FRL); Briarhill Middle (math 67% / reading 68%, grade A-, #77 of 1,662 statewide, top 5%, 799 students, 11% FRL); Marcus H S (math 75% / reading 81%, grade A-, #58 of 1,632 statewide, top 4%, 3,005 students, 11% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lewisville ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: 272 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-FG0WP3ESAS3P4A
· Data 1 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29