1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
993 sqft ·
Built 1987
· Condo
· Active
· 521 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,236/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,311
Tax + insurance
−$281
HOA
−$717
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$889
Net cashflow
$1,037/mo
Annual
$12,443/yr
Cap rate
11.27%
Cash-on-cash
17.78%
DSCR
1.79
1% rule
1.69%
Cash to close
$70,000
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $250k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $250k).
It's been on market 521 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#565 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Sea Gate Elementary School (math 86% / reading 81%, grade A+, #60 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 703 students, 26% FRL); Pine Ridge Middle School (math 74% / reading 70%, grade A, #52 of 571 statewide, top 10%, 832 students, 31% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 27% FRL vs 55% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 74% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 704 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 3.7% in Pine Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($119k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 521 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Painting
— Painting the exterior and interior walls would improve the home's appearance.
Minor: Landscaping
— Pruning and trimming the landscaping would enhance curb appeal.
CashFlowRE · CFR-FG47766ENW1SV2
· Data 19 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29