411 Prospect St

Watertown, NY 13601

$129,000A-

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,719 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,009/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $696/mo
• Annual: $8,349/yr
• Cap rate: 12.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.11%
• DSCR: 2.03
• 1% rule: 1.56%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $696 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 6.2% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.