411 S Grover Ave Lot 19

Alma, MI 48801

$45,800F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 2017 · Other · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $898/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$240
• Tax + insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$530
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $-137/mo
• Annual: $-1,649/yr
• Cap rate: 2.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.86%
• DSCR: 0.43
• 1% rule: 1.96%
• Cash to close: $12,824

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $46k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $26k (43.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($898 rent vs $46k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $26k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $317 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#345 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Alma Public Schools (town): math 28% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #288 of 540 in MI (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Luce Road Elementary School (304 students, 72% FRL); Donald L Pavlik Middle School (math 27% / reading 45%, grade F, #269 of 493 statewide, top 56%, 449 students, 69% FRL); Alma Senior High School (math 27% / reading 62%, grade F, #214 of 713 statewide, top 36%, 558 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 59% of rent.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 47 units permitted in Gratiot County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gratiot County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 4.2% in Alma — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.