111 Humphrey Ln

Salem, AR 72576

$129,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,206 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 247 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,016/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $-89/mo
• Annual: $-1,067/yr
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.95%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (21.2% below list).
• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#148 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Salem School District (rural): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #10 of 238 in AR (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Salem Elementary School (math 59% / reading 54%, grade C+, #57 of 454 statewide, top 13%, 451 students, 66% FRL); Salem High School (math 48% / reading 55%, grade D+, #13 of 292 statewide, top 4%, 425 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP.
• Fulton County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $129k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.