4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,684 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 3 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,940/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,468
Tax + insurance
−$467
HOA
−$29
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$407
Net cashflow
$-431/mo
Annual
$-5,177/yr
Cap rate
4.44%
Cash-on-cash
-6.60%
DSCR
0.71
1% rule
0.69%
Cash to close
$78,397
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-431 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (22.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (30.7% below list).
Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $194k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#694 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Freeport Elementary School (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 1,123 students, 55% FRL); Emerald Coast Middle School (math 70% / reading 65%, grade A-, #77 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 868 students, 24% FRL); South Walton High School (math 61% / reading 73%, grade B, #69 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,235 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: 423 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-FJETDE1PAR3Y07
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29