3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
906 sqft ·
Built 1959
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 383 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,444/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$918
Tax + insurance
−$287
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$303
Net cashflow
$-64/mo
Annual
$-769/yr
Cap rate
5.85%
Cash-on-cash
-1.57%
DSCR
0.93
1% rule
0.82%
Cash to close
$49,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-769/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (6.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (17.5% below list).
It's been on market 383 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $144k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#199 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
San Angelo ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #627 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Alta Loma El (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 278 students, 84% FRL); Lincoln Middle (math 19% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 844 students, 78% FRL); Lake View H S (math 6% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,527 of 1,632 statewide, top 94%, 1,085 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 53% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.5%/yr); 229 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 233 units permitted in Tom Green County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tom Green County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.8% in San Angelo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 383 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29