7790 Holtville Rd

Holtville, AL 36092

$240,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,479 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Active · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,562/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-183/mo
• Annual: $-2,195/yr
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.27%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $67,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-183 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (34.9% below list).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (34.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#155 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Elmore County (town): math 27% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #21 of 129 in AL (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holtville Elementary School (math 44% / reading 67%, grade C, #86 of 627 statewide, top 14%, 779 students, 55% FRL); Holtville Middle School (math 30% / reading 62%, grade D+, #36 of 257 statewide, top 14%, 614 students, 62% FRL); Holtville High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #47 of 305 statewide, top 17%, 554 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 92 units permitted in Elmore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Elmore County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $193k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.0% in Holtville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.