50 Brazaro Ave

Monterey Park, NM 87031

$110,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · Built 1973 · Other · Active · 301 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,029/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $819/mo
• Annual: $9,822/yr
• Cap rate: 15.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.89%
• DSCR: 2.42
• 1% rule: 1.84%
• Cash to close: $30,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $819 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#52 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, schools F.
• Los Lunas Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #34 of 95 in NM (top 36%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.2%/yr); 562 active listings in the ZIP; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.