27 County Road 661b

Theodosia, MO 65761

$199,900D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,366 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,220/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $-418/mo
• Annual: $-5,015/yr
• Cap rate: 3.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.96%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-418 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (30.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (39.0% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (39.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#649 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lutie R-VI (rural): math 20% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #510 of 535 in MO (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lutie Elem. (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #935 of 1,115 statewide, top 84%, 50 students, 94% FRL); Lutie High (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 53 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 66% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP.
• Ozark County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.1% in Theodosia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.