390 State St

Amherst Town, MA 01002

$485,000F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,321/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax + insurance: −$697
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$697
• Net cashflow: $-617/mo
• Annual: $-7,410/yr
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.46%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $135,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $485k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-617 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $376k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $332k (31.5% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($470k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $332k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Amherst-Pelham (suburban): math 67% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #39 of 302 in MA (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #330 of 938 statewide, top 38%, 326 students, 0% FRL); Amherst Regional Middle School (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B, #42 of 305 statewide, top 15%, 372 students, 0% FRL); Amherst Regional High (math 77% / reading 87%, grade A, #33 of 343 statewide, top 11%, 858 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 22% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.3%/yr); 53 active listings in the ZIP; 349 units permitted in Hampshire County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hampshire County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $272k; list at $485k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.4% in Amherst Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,321/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 2123% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.