6 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,304 sqft ·
Built 1900
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 181 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,219/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$708
Tax + insurance
−$90
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$676
Net cashflow
$1,745/mo
Annual
$20,942/yr
Cap rate
21.81%
Cash-on-cash
55.40%
DSCR
3.47
1% rule
2.38%
Cash to close
$37,800
Investor read
This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $135k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive. Per door: $873/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $135k).
It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $11k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 21.8% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,219/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1501% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-FK8HZRCN5E19VV
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29