2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
760 sqft ·
Built 1966
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 122 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,441/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$246
Tax + insurance
−$78
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$303
Net cashflow
$815/mo
Annual
$9,774/yr
Cap rate
27.13%
Cash-on-cash
74.43%
DSCR
4.31
1% rule
3.07%
Cash to close
$13,132
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $47k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $815 ($10k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $47k).
It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $41k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $324 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#289 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Pinson Elementary School (801 students, 54% FRL); Rudd Middle School (math 0% / reading 26%, grade F, #214 of 257 statewide, top 83%, 667 students, 61% FRL); Pinson Valley High School (math 6% / reading 17%, grade F, #246 of 305 statewide, top 81%, 1,029 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 27.1% vs local median 5.6% in Pinson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-FKYKZWFZ170SK7
· Data 16 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29