61 Cottonwood Cir #61

Oroville, CA 95965

$119,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 830 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Active · 569 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,024/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $-19/mo
• Annual: $-233/yr
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.70%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-233/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (14.6% below list).
• It's been on market 569 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,136 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: cost of living D, crime F, amenities F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oroville High (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 936 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $120k implies a 531% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.6% in Oroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 569 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.