4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
2,096 sqft ·
Built 1954
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 894 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,285/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,337
Tax + insurance
−$534
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$480
Net cashflow
$-66/mo
Annual
$-794/yr
Cap rate
5.98%
Cash-on-cash
-1.11%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$71,400
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-794/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (4.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (10.4% below list).
It's been on market 894 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $224k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Jones High (math 9% / reading 25%, grade F, #597 of 667 statewide, top 90%, 1,672 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 56% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-32 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,285/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($41k/yr) (locally 1597% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 894 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-FMP3FN957QM39K
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29