3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,247 sqft ·
Built 1982
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 56 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,925/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,169
Tax + insurance
−$433
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$404
Net cashflow
$-81/mo
Annual
$-977/yr
Cap rate
6.21%
Cash-on-cash
-0.29%
DSCR
0.99
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$62,440
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $223k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-977/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (6.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (13.7% below list).
It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $192k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,975 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $60k; list at $223k implies a 274% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in North Port — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-FMPWK4DP1926VW
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29