4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
3,163 sqft ·
Built 1897
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 38 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,383/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,415
Tax + insurance
−$423
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$500
Net cashflow
$44/mo
Annual
$528/yr
Cap rate
6.49%
Cash-on-cash
0.70%
DSCR
1.03
1% rule
0.88%
Cash to close
$75,572
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($528/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (11.7% below list).
It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $238k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#74 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1897 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 412 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $212k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1897 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-FMQSNNE40S28V2
· Data 20 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29