84 Old Mansfield Rd

Waitsfield, VT 05673

$449,000C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,337 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 127 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,594/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax + insurance: −$596
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$755
• Net cashflow: $-111/mo
• Annual: $-1,334/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.06%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $125,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $429k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $359k (19.9% below list).
• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $359k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#37 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 185 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $192k; list at $449k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.1% in Waitsfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.