4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,381 sqft ·
Built 1901
· Townhouse
· Active
· 42 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,510/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,049
Tax + insurance
−$350
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$317
Net cashflow
$-206/mo
Annual
$-2,471/yr
Cap rate
5.06%
Cash-on-cash
-4.41%
DSCR
0.80
1% rule
0.75%
Cash to close
$56,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-206 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (18.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (24.5% below list).
It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $151k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#63 in IA, #1,432 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
Des Moines Independent Community School District (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #289 of 289 in IA (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 64 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,953 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (540 in 5+ unit buildings).
Polk County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
7 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $154k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.1% in Des Moines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $1,510/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 903% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29