518 W Victor St

Poplar Bluff, MO 63901

$124,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 790 sqft · Built 1940 · Other · Pending · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,002/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $-72/mo
• Annual: $-861/yr
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.46%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-861/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (19.8% below list).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $100k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#143 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Poplar Bluff R-I (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #127 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oak Grove Elem. (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #70 of 1,115 statewide, top 8%, 318 students, 99% FRL); Poplar Bluff Middle School (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #215 of 391 statewide, top 56%, 1,018 students, 74% FRL); Poplar Bluff High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #356 of 521 statewide, top 71%, 1,504 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 56% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 278 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butler County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.4% in Poplar Bluff — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.