3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,020 sqft ·
Built 1930
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 108 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,029/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$708
Tax + insurance
−$157
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$216
Net cashflow
$-52/mo
Annual
$-627/yr
Cap rate
5.83%
Cash-on-cash
-1.66%
DSCR
0.93
1% rule
0.76%
Cash to close
$37,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-627/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (6.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (23.8% below list).
It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $103k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $5k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#896 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
Mclean ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #297 of 1,141 in TX (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Gray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Gray County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29