12 Greenwood Ln

Thornwood, NY 10595

$1,279,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,225 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,999/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,707
• Tax + insurance: −$2,380
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,730
• Net cashflow: $1,182/mo
• Annual: $14,182/yr
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.96%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $358,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.28M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $1.28M).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.20M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.20M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $38k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#389 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mount Pleasant Central School District (suburban): math 62% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #146 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Columbus Elementary School (math 65% / reading 66%, grade B+, #587 of 2,108 statewide, top 28%, 482 students, 10% FRL); Westlake Middle School (math 55% / reading 61%, grade B, #184 of 729 statewide, top 25%, 429 students, 14% FRL); Westlake High School (math 72% / reading 95%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 547 students, 19% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $350k; list at $1.28M implies a 265% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.7% in Thornwood — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.