78 Webster Rd

Crystal Lake, CT 06029

$289,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 986 sqft · Built 1935 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,366/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$487
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-138/mo
• Annual: $-1,652/yr
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.04%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (18.4% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $237k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#110 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Ellington School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #38 of 153 in CT (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Crystal Lake School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #177 of 553 statewide, top 34%, 307 students, 17% FRL); Ellington Middle School (math 53% / reading 64%, grade B, #53 of 175 statewide, top 30%, 398 students, 17% FRL); Ellington High School (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C, #52 of 194 statewide, top 31%, 737 students, 16% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,867 units permitted in Capitol Planning Region in 2024 (1,399 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $236k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.4% in Crystal Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.