3820 Rising Sun Rd

Palmyra, VA 22963

$172,542C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,713/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$905
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $273/mo
• Annual: $3,277/yr
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.78%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $48,312

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $173k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $273 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (0.7% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $171k (0.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#556 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Fluvanna County Public School District (rural): math 61% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #34 of 131 in VA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary (715 students, 52% FRL); Fluvanna Middle (math 65% / reading 70%, grade A-, #98 of 342 statewide, top 30%, 763 students, 42% FRL); Fluvanna County High (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #180 of 319 statewide, top 57%, 1,488 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 23% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 138 units permitted in Fluvanna County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.9% in Palmyra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.