Pecos Plan

Kyle, TX 78640

$109,995F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,921/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,621
• Tax + insurance: −$833
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-1,937/mo
• Annual: $-23,240/yr
• Cap rate: 1.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.61%
• DSCR: 0.26
• 1% rule: 0.38%
• Cash to close: $139,954

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Science Hall El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 591 students, 76% FRL); Armando Chapa Middle (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,236 of 1,662 statewide, top 76%, 668 students, 65% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 43% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 6.8% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1820 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.6% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.