40671 Village Dr Unit 15D

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$5,500D

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,880 sqft · Built 2002 · Timeshare · Active · 781 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,480/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$29
• Tax + insurance: −$9
• HOA: −$1,369
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$731
• Net cashflow: $1,343/mo
• Annual: $16,111/yr
• Cap rate: 299.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 1046.16%
• DSCR: 47.55
• 1% rule: 63.28%
• Cash to close: $1,540

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath timeshare listed at $6k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $6k).
• It's been on market 781 days — a 12% lower offer ($5k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $5k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $38 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $165 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#420 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, health & safety D+.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 540 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (72%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 299.2% vs local median 2.4% in Big Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,480/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 209% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 781 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.