30322 Highland Blvd

The Woodlands, TX 77354

$699,000D

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 4,069 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,487/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax + insurance: −$972
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-2,673/mo
• Annual: $-32,080/yr
• Cap rate: 1.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.39%
• DSCR: 0.27
• 1% rule: 0.36%
• Cash to close: $195,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $699k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-32k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (67.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (64.4% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($657k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (67.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $75k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $70k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $81k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$120k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 68% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.