7145 A1a S #12

Crescent Beach, FL 32080

$379,000C+

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,472 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Active · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,403/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax + insurance: −$489
• HOA: −$575
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$925
• Net cashflow: $427/mo
• Annual: $5,125/yr
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.58%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $106,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath condo listed at $379k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $427 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $379k).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $356k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#743 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D, amenities F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 534 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $280k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 0.7% in Crescent Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,403/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($93k/yr) (locally 417% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.